International Students
How to retain graduates long term
A while back1 I promised to come back to an analysis that Copenhagen Kommune conducted about international students while I looked at their workforce analysis.
The reason I have procrastinated so long is that I really want to do a quick analysis about an aspect of something they reference but right now I am up to my eyeballs in a couple of other data projects and there is a limit to how much Python I am willing to write in one week. But! My new mantra is “get it done then get it good” so I promise I will do an original number crunch another time, and start with talking about their analysis on its own terms.
It’s none other than the International Students in the Capital Region Key Figures Catalogue, baby!
They split it into three chapters:
International Students
International Graduates
Exchange Students
And their focus is the retention of students. International graduates are big money for Danish companies and communities. If you can get them to stay.
The analysis is of international students in the Capital Region (excluding Bornholm), and their data comes from 2012-2022.
They put the spoilers up top. The main conclusions are that Denmark is more likely to keep international graduates if they had a job while studying. A third of graduates leave shortly after finishing their studies (within the first three months) and the biggest bombshell of them all: It is harder for international graduates to break into the job market, and once they get in, they are paid less for the first two years2.
60% of international graduates do not have a job three months after graduation. Danish graduates are less likely to be in that position: 50% do not have a job three months after graduation.
But, honestly, the figures for Danish graduates are ridiculous as well. How in the holy hell can employers say stuff like “we have a labour force gap!” when between 50 - 60% of new graduates can’t get a bloody job after they qualify?
Ok, deep breaths.
International Students
There has been a shift over the ten years analysed from students mostly being in CPH to do their masters or PhD to overwhelmingly so. The proportion of students here to do their bachelors has stayed mostly constant, so the gains in post-grads have been made at the expense of short courses. It is the same pattern in the provinces but the other courses are reasonably popular still and bachelors have become more attractive.
Of course, this is because the government shut down English language courses for some cheap headlines because “those graduates don’t stay long term anyway”. The current administration are slowly reintroducing them with the logic that “we want the graduates to stay long term and help Denmark grow”.
Where do these students come from? A fifth from the Nordics, a half from the EU (plus the UK), and the rest from the rest of the world. The top two origin countries are Germany and Norway which is probably not a huge shock but then in third is China! Sweden and Iceland are in the top ten but not anywhere near the top.
The top three schools are DTU, KU and CBS. Over half are studying STEM3 and very few are studying ‘welfare subjects’ (healthcare and education), but that’s not so crazy since ‘welfare subjects’ are usually taught in Danish.
It has become more common for international students to have a part time job. Half have jobs which are “relevant to studies” as in, working in the industry you are studying. A quarter are “not relevant” as in, waiting tables and so on. It is super rare for international students to have a study job in the public sector. Again, that is probably because they insist on native quality Danish for the most part.
The average pay rate is 164 DKK an hour, and students on average work 15 hours a week on the side of their studies. Heartbreakingly, the EUD (business), students get 129 DKK an hour, so they work 24 hours a week on the side, and they get these jobs faster than other students. Other students take 6 months to a year to get a side job, business students get a job in the first three months.
International Graduates
Many international graduates do not intend to stay in Denmark after they finish their studies and leave with a few months. After that big drop off (of about a quarter), there is a slow and steady drop of graduates staying in the country. After three years, only two fifths are left.
The keen reader will have cross referenced this with the article I linked from 2017, where one of the reasons for dropping English language courses was that 57% of international graduates left within 2 years. Now it is 51% from the Capital region and 66% from the provinces leave within 2 years. I am going to declare those figures basically static and call it a day.
If they didn’t have a study job, three quarters have left in that timeframe (two thirds in the first 3 months). We don’t know which way around this works. Do students who already want to stay find study jobs or does not getting a study job make you want to leave?
Graduates of short courses are much more likely to stay long term. Graduates of bachelors have an extraordinary pattern of a steady loss over the first two years and then a huge exodus after that. Please remember that fact. Around the two year mark, graduates of bachelors programmes, go from 80% retention to 60%.
Which branches do international graduates get their first jobs in?
After short courses, Danish graduates get their first jobs in retail, knowledge economy and a little sliver in hotels and restaurants. For international graduates, the lion’s share get jobs in hotels and restaurants. Similar pattern (but not quite as stark) for medium length courses. The pattern is reversed after bachelors: Danes are more likely to be working in retail and less likely to be working at all. Internationals: knowledge economy jobs and retail. For long courses, there isn’t much difference in which branches Danish and international graduates end up working in (knowledge economy, communication) but Danish grads are more likely to be working shortly after graduation.
There is a massive great pay gap for Danish and international students. The cynic in me wonders if that’s why Danish companies are so keen to have more international grads in the workforce. It couldn’t be that they want to reduce their salary overheads, could it? The biggest gap is between Danish and international graduates of bachelors.
Anyway. Remember the fact I told you about something pissing off bachelors graduates and loads of them leave after 2 years? Magically, the pay gap between Danish and international graduates resolves after 2 years. *poof* Amazing!
Not to claim causation or anything but do you know what could resolve a huge pay gap after a couple of years? People getting pissed off for getting less pay for the same job, and dropping out of the statistics by leaving the country. The people getting the going-rate stay. And just like that, the pay gap is gone! Or you know, people are more knowledgeable about the system and can negotiate the market rate. Either or.
In conclusion
The analysis I am reporting on is just the facts, son. So that the civil servants and politicians can make better decisions. I am all for that. But here is a bit of editorialisation from me in the style of Socrates.
Is the system working as intended? Why is it so hard to get that first job after graduation? Why are international graduates paid less than Danish? Why is it harder for them to get jobs? Is it harder for them to get relevant study jobs too? Would employers prefer that graduates leave in the first two years, just as long as there is a fresh batch of new grads to pay less to? Or would they prefer better retention so they can build their people up?
I am genuinely baffled on this point. When kommuner and business communities say they want to retain more international students longer term, are they for real? Because this is what it would take:-
International students working in study-relevant jobs on the side of their studies
International graduates walking into their first graduate job within 3 months
International graduates getting the same as a Danish graduate in salary
So, this means, to spell it out:-
Danish companies need to take on international student workers and interns
Danish companies need to hold their nose and recruit entry-level people into jobs, even if they come from another country
Danish companies need to have transparent pay policies and strive to treat people fairly
If they don’t want to do that, that’s fine and up to them, but that really does mean that kommuner and organisations like Copenhagen Capacity can let them crack on and get on with it, no need to do any more surveys and analyses. If this is how they like it, there is no need to make any more bar charts about the phenomenon. The solution is in the companies’ hands but it has to be a problem they want to solve.
In March! It feels like a hundred years ago.
Ok, we need to come back to that.
Science, technology, engineering and maths