After the Republican administration took power in the USA at the beginning of the year, the Danish Chamber of Commerce (Dansk Erhverv), and the Engineers’ Union (IDA), made a joint statement to urge the welcoming of American researchers into Denmark.
I have previously noted that thousands of USA citizens leave Denmark every year and made the point that perhaps Denmark is an attractive destination for a shorter adventure but not a place where Americans settle long term.
A reader suggested I had overlooked a key factor: exchange students. There is a huge exchange student programme in Copenhagen and maybe the huge numbers of “emigrants” were simply teens going back for their final study year.
In short, did I let an outsize cohort distort the patterns I ought to be seeing in the wider population?
There are a lot of graphs to get through before we get to the answer so I will be upfront about it: sort of. Yes. But not completely. It’s complicated.
I adapted the dashboard that I created for the Syrian dataset last week, using the same datasources1 as before, and made a few changes to reflect the differences in these cohorts adding life-stage filters disaggregated views to tease out different dynamics.
The most obvious changes are that I added two new pages for exploring the “student question” but I also changed how I explored the population data for the different kommuner. The Syrian data tell a story of a refugee crisis in 2015 and then people becoming permanently settled, mostly in Jutland. The USA data show slow and steady net migration into mostly Copenhagen, hence the different visualisations.
Who is Here?
In 2008, there were just under 10k USA citizens living in Denmark. Most of them were adults between the ages of 24-64. In 2024, there are just over 11k USA citizens. In that same time period, just under 1400 Americans became Danish citizens. The population of under 10s has doubled. But look at the breakdown by age. The largest 5 year age band is 20-24 and has been for all years except for the pandemic blip.
We’ve found the exchange students!
Net Migration Patterns
So, did I oversimplify the net migration pattern by counting these always-going-to-be-temporary students? The above line graph is an attempt to answer.
Look at the bottom graph first because it is simpler to explain. I got my data in 5 year age bands, so I put the 14-24 year old cohort together and called them “Adolescents”2 . Their net migration has been erratic to say the least. Sometimes strongly negative (I guess ‘expat’ kids who grew up and went home for university?) Mostly weakly positive.
In the top graph, the child and retirement lifestages have more steady fluctuations, hovering around neutral net migration. For adults between 24-64, net migration was steady and positive, there was a blip for the pandemic, came roaring back and now it is not clear if the level is plateauing at a higher level or dipping back down to pre-pandemic levels. Only time will tell.
Seasonality of Migration
Here come three incredible graphs and I am going to set them up so you can enjoy them without commentary.
They are the total population numbers of USA citizens, split into quarters, for 2015-2025.
All Age Cohorts
All Age Cohorts minus Adolescents
Just the Adolescents
Wow, right?
The population of students is MASSIVELY seasonal. The populations in even-numbered quarters are sometimes double the odd-numbered quarters! It’s so massively anomalous it distorts the seasonal pattern for the entire population of Americans in Denmark.
The pattern without the student-aged cohort is that of slow and steady population increase.
Anyway, the answer to the question posed at the start is if you drop the student cohort for their anomalous migratory behaviour, you can see that the population of Americans in Denmark is increasing but very slowly.
In other words, it is still not a given that if an American adult immigrates into Denmark that they will stay long term. If Dansk Erhverv and IDA want these researchers to have long and happy careers here, it would be a good idea to find out now from the long-termers and the early-leavers the factors that make it easier to stay, so they can convert this gentle increase into something more substantial.
I’ve got more graphs if you’ve got more cognitive bandwidth.
Population Developments
Aarhus
The population of Americans in Aarhus was rocketing up, was knocked back down by the pandemic and never really recovered. I wonder what happened.
The kommune with the most Americans is Copenhagen, and you can see even the pandemic did nothing to change the trajectory. It is a wildly popular place for Americans to live (this isn’t age disaggregated so this includes all those lovely short term students)
Employment
Job Trends
The largest employment sector for Americans is public administration, education and health and has been for many years. Most people are here on work permits, with honourable mentions for permanent and family reunification permits. Permanent residency has become more popular over time but I think you’d expect it to be more popular considering the population increase. Could it be too difficult to get or is there such a high churn of people they haven’t lived here long enough to apply?
This page shows where people hold full time jobs. ‘Working age population’ is defined (by me), as 20-64, so contains students who cannot work full-time. I still think this graph might be saying something about accompanying spouses.
If we look at all types of work (that is, full and part time), only three-quarters of the working age population have jobs at all. What is the other quarter doing? There is a big story under all these charts but I do not know enough to say for sure what it is.
Summary
The data reveal that the American presence in Denmark is more complex than simply counting arrivals and departures. Strip away the dramatic seasonal patterns of exchange students and we see a modest, steady growth in the American population. Copenhagen dominates and employment is concentrated in education, health and public administration.
The key takeaway is Denmark appears to be moderately successful at attracting Americans but less so at converting them to permanent residents. For Danish institutions hoping to capitalise on American research talent in the current political climate, the challenge will be convincing them to stay long-term.
Understanding why only three-quarters of working-age Americans are employed and why permanent residency numbers remain relatively low could be the key to turning this trickle of migration into a more substantial stream.
More info and the Power BI file itself on my github: https://kellydrasmussen.github.io/USADKMigration/
I really wanted the 18-22 crowd but beggars can’t be choosers.
Sharp, readable analysis. The whole series is a great resource for anyone interested in demographics and immigration in Denmark--not just data nerds.
A data analyst of all seasons - that’s what you are, Kelly! You are doing such a service with your pattern recognition and pithy explanations.